2026全球IPO展望：资本流向、市场选择与估值范式

Group 1 - The global IPO market is showing signs of recovery in 2026, with an increase in listing projects across multiple exchanges, particularly in AI, hard technology, energy, and advanced manufacturing [1][2] - The types of companies successfully advancing to IPOs are concentrated in a few industries characterized by high capital density, long investment cycles, and strong policy connections, while many light-asset and narrative-driven companies remain outside the listing doors [2][4] - The pricing logic for IPOs is shifting from a focus on growth potential to an emphasis on strategic necessity, cash flow verifiability, and long-term capital sustainability due to high interest rates and geopolitical factors [3][12] Group 2 - IPOs are transitioning from a "market reward mechanism" to a strategic asset selection and pricing mechanism, with significant premiums for companies in AI infrastructure, aerospace, and defense in the U.S. market, reflecting early pricing for "future critical infrastructure" [4][23] - In China, IPOs are increasingly associated with industrial upgrades and technological self-sufficiency, indicating a shift in the role of IPOs from mere market sentiment to fulfilling institutional functions [4][24] - The 2026 IPO landscape is characterized by a highly differentiated and selective return, where capital is not becoming more lenient but rather more concentrated and cautious [4][17] Group 3 - The evolution of IPO functions indicates a systemic shift, where the core function of IPOs is changing from being a primary channel for financing and investment exit to a mechanism for public pricing and confirmation of strategic assets [6][7] - The emergence of "strategic IPOs" is defined by companies that occupy critical nodes in the industrial chain, have capital-intensive operations, and are closely tied to national long-term development goals [13][15] - The current IPO logic excludes "story-driven IPOs," raising the threshold for entry into the public market, as companies relying on user scale or single application scenarios struggle to gain market recognition [15][41] Group 4 - The 2026 IPO market is not a uniform recovery but rather a simultaneous pricing of three distinct capital narratives across different markets: the U.S. focuses on "future infrastructure," China on "industrial upgrades and security," and emerging markets on "population dividends and digital penetration" [26][31] - The U.S. market is prioritizing companies that do not depend on short-term demand fluctuations but are embedded in national or global systems, with a focus on long-term cash flow predictability [22][23] - In contrast, the Chinese market emphasizes the strategic position of companies within the industrial chain, where IPOs serve as a mechanism for capitalizing on industrial capabilities rather than merely reflecting market sentiment [24][54] Group 5 - The 2026 IPO landscape indicates a preference for infrastructure and system node-type companies, with capital prioritizing "position" and "irreplaceability" over growth speed [48][49] - The IPO process is becoming a tool for risk transfer and asset confirmation, where companies with unclear business models are increasingly left in the private market [48][72] - The changes in the IPO market are expected to enhance the "signal-to-noise ratio" in capital markets, indicating that the cost of failure in IPOs is rising, and listing no longer guarantees a "safe zone" [72][73]