3 6 Ke·2025-12-25 10:29Core Viewpoint - By 2025, open-source will dominate the landscape of large models, with a significant increase in the number of users adopting open-source models globally, marking a shift in the competitive dynamics between open and closed-source approaches [1][20]. Group 1: Open-Source vs Closed-Source Dynamics - The debate between open-source and closed-source large models has been ongoing, with both sides presenting strong arguments, but the trend is shifting towards open-source as more major internet companies adopt this approach [1][5]. - Closed-source models, initially seen as the only viable path due to advantages in data security and commercial monetization, are now facing challenges in areas like AI accessibility and ecosystem development [3][10]. - The emergence of open-source models has created a new competitive landscape, with companies like Meta and Alibaba leading the charge in open-source initiatives [5][10]. Group 2: Impact of DeepSeek - The introduction of DeepSeek has significantly altered the competitive balance, demonstrating that open-source models can achieve high performance at lower costs, thus attracting more companies to switch to open-source strategies [7][20]. - DeepSeek's training cost was approximately $294,000, with a training duration of about 80 hours, showcasing a more efficient approach compared to traditional methods [7]. - Open-source models like DeepSeek and Qwen have reportedly matched or even surpassed the performance of leading international products, shifting the focus of competition from pure performance to cost, efficiency, and commercialization capabilities [8][20]. Group 3: Market Trends and User Engagement - The AI application market is rapidly evolving, with mobile and PC active user numbers reaching 729 million and 200 million respectively by September 2025, indicating a shift towards more specialized and efficient applications [11][13]. - Open-source models are seen as the quickest path to market, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that enhances user engagement and accelerates innovation [13][14]. - Companies are increasingly recognizing the long-term commercial value of high user engagement within open-source ecosystems, leading to a competitive race among internet giants to provide comprehensive open-source solutions [15][19]. Group 4: Commercialization of Open-Source - Open-source does not equate to free; companies are exploring various monetization strategies, including enterprise versions, commercial APIs, and cloud services, to sustain their open-source initiatives [18][19]. - Alibaba has open-sourced over 300 models, generating more than 170,000 derivative models, positioning itself as a leader in the global open-source model landscape [16]. - Baidu is integrating its self-developed Kunlun chips with open-source models, adopting a full-stack autonomous approach to enhance its competitive edge [17].