美国GDP的虚假繁荣：AI行业热火朝天 其他行业黯淡过冬

Group 1 - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 3.2% [1] - Wall Street traders reacted positively to the strong GDP data, leading to a multi-day rise in U.S. stock markets [1] - Some analysts raised concerns that the GDP growth may largely be attributed to contributions from the AI sector, while non-AI sectors are reportedly shrinking [1] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics reported that private fixed investment in Q3 only increased due to AI-related spending, with all non-AI sectors experiencing declines [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that investment in AI-related industries is crucial for GDP growth, suggesting that without tech-related spending, the U.S. would be close to recession [4] - Major companies in the AI sector, including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, are projected to spend $399 billion on AI this year, with future spending expected to exceed $600 billion [4] Group 3 - A significant portion of AI capital expenditures is supported by debt, with net supply of new debt related to AI expected to exceed $200 billion by 2025, doubling from the previous year [6] - Goldman Sachs indicated that 30% of the net supply of dollar credit this year is related to AI, with expectations for further increases next year [6] - By 2030, cumulative investments by these tech giants in AI data centers are projected to reach $4 trillion, surpassing the inflation-adjusted cost of the Apollo moon landing program by tenfold [6][8]