聚焦2025IEEF | 能源转型与绿色低碳发展

Core Viewpoint - The global energy transition towards green and low-carbon systems is gaining momentum despite geopolitical challenges, with a clear path emerging for renewable energy development and technological advancements in energy storage, hydrogen, and nuclear energy [3][4]. Group 1: Global Energy Transition - The global average temperature is projected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement in 2024, with CO2 emissions in the energy sector reaching a record high of 40.8 billion tons [3]. - Renewable energy sources like solar and wind have become the main contributors to new power generation capacity due to technological advancements and cost reductions [3]. - The transition paths vary significantly across countries and regions due to differences in resource endowments, technological capabilities, and development stages [3]. Group 2: China's Energy Strategy - By 2025, China aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% and increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption to over 30% by 2035, with a target of 360 million kilowatts for wind and solar capacity [4]. - China is advancing its "dual carbon" goals, optimizing its energy structure, and enhancing energy efficiency, marking a new era of rapid development for renewable energy [4]. - The core of the green energy transition is a technological revolution, with a focus on integrating coal, oil, natural gas, renewable energy, carbon neutrality, and smart technologies into a cohesive energy system [4]. Group 3: Nuclear Energy Development - China has achieved 100% domestic production of key nuclear power equipment and plans to approve 10 new nuclear power units by 2025, maintaining a steady growth in nuclear capacity [6]. - The country is implementing a three-step strategy for nuclear energy development, focusing on thermal, fast, and fusion reactors, with the goal of commercializing fusion energy by 2050 [6]. Group 4: New Power System - The new power system requires a collaborative approach among generation, grid, load, and storage, aiming for a safe, green, economical, and shared energy future [7]. - The electricity demand in China is expected to grow steadily, reaching 13.5 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2030 [7]. Group 5: Renewable Energy Challenges - The global renewable energy sector is projected to add over 4,600 gigawatts of capacity by 2030, with solar energy accounting for 80% of this growth, but faces challenges in system integration and manufacturing health [8]. - The financial difficulties of renewable energy manufacturers due to falling prices of solar components pose risks to the long-term supply chain [8]. Group 6: Resource Constraints - The transition to wind and solar energy may face significant resource constraints, as the demand for minerals required for renewable energy generation could increase twelvefold by 2060 compared to 2020 levels [11]. - A reevaluation of the reliance on wind and solar energy is necessary, considering the potential role of nuclear energy and fossil fuels combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) [11]. Group 7: International Cooperation - China has become a significant contributor to global renewable energy development, accounting for over 45% of global wind and solar installations and reducing solar costs by 80% [12]. - The country has mobilized over 177.6 billion yuan in climate funding to support developing countries in their energy transitions [12].