“国泰君安东久REIT”扩募上市回旋镖

Core Insights - "Guotai Junan Dongjiu REIT" has maintained a strong premium rate in the secondary market since its listing, reaching 21.52% as of December 22, 2025, despite a projected decline in rental rates and occupancy in 2025 [1][2] - The REIT plans to expand its shares on December 26, 2025, with a pricing of 3.582 CNY per share, reflecting an 18.02% premium over the initial offering price [1] Performance Summary - The occupancy rate of "Guotai Junan Dongjiu REIT" has remained above 95% from October 2022 to 2024, but is expected to decline in 2025, with a minimum occupancy rate of 94.62% and an average of 93.61% [2] - The latest rental price is 30.34 CNY per square meter per month, which is a 3.1% decrease compared to the first year of listing, despite a projected growth rate of 3%-5% [2] - The actual operating income for 2024 is reported at 10,905.74 million CNY, with a net operating profit of 5,118.36 million CNY, indicating a discrepancy between forecasted and actual performance [2] Expansion Discussion - The secondary market price of REITs is closely linked to performance completion rates, with "Guotai Junan Dongjiu REIT" showing resilience with only a 1.24% decline during a volatile period from October 31 to December 19, 2025 [3] - Historical data indicates that REITs with high secondary market premiums often see their prices drop below the expansion issue price shortly after the expansion [5] Asset and Capital Value - The expansion of REITs during favorable market conditions can enhance the enthusiasm of sponsors and investors, but the actual performance completion rates can significantly impact market prices [6] - For "Guotai Junan Dongjiu REIT," there is a notable difference between predicted and actual performance metrics, which raises concerns about the sustainability of asset values [6] - In 2023, actual operating income exceeded predictions by 831.56 million CNY, while operating costs decreased by 3,220.2 million CNY, indicating a complex relationship between forecasted and realized financial outcomes [6] Conclusion - Given the current performance trends and market conditions, it is likely that "Guotai Junan Dongjiu REIT" may experience a decline below the expansion issue price post-listing [7]