2025是“乐坛小年”吗？

Core Insights - The music industry in 2025 is perceived as a "small year" due to the lack of breakout new hits, with many of the top songs being older tracks [1][4][8] - Despite the perception of a "small year," 2025 is also seen as a "watershed" moment with the rise of AI, stagnation in music streaming, and a booming live performance market reshaping the music economy [3][12][23] Streaming and Song Popularity - Major platforms like Spotify and TikTok show that the top songs of 2025 are predominantly older tracks, with Spotify's top three songs being from previous years [4][8] - The most popular song of 2025 is "APT." by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars, which was released in 2024 but continues to dominate charts [4][8] - In the Chinese music scene, songs like "Jumping Machine" and "Great Ambition," both released in 2024, are leading the charts, indicating a similar trend [10][12] Live Performance Market - The live performance market is thriving in 2025, with record-breaking ticket sales for top artists, indicating a shift in focus from recorded music to live events [20][22] - The touring market is now seen as a primary revenue driver, with artists' streaming numbers significantly increasing during tour periods [21][22] AI and Industry Dynamics - The rise of AI-generated music is creating new trends, with AI songs starting to gain traction, although they are not yet mainstream [16][25] - The music industry is experiencing a generational shift, with older artists dominating while younger preferences are not being met, leading to a potential decline in industry vitality [14][23] - The concept of "super fan economy" is emerging, emphasizing deeper connections with core fans as streaming revenue growth slows [23][25] Market Performance Data - The global recorded music market is projected to see a significant decline, with streaming revenue growth slowing down dramatically, particularly in the U.S. where it dropped by 40% year-on-year [17][20] - Various countries are experiencing reduced growth in their music markets, with notable declines in streaming revenue across major markets [17] Future Outlook - The music industry is at a crossroads, with the potential for AI to reshape the landscape, but also a growing divide between fans of traditional music and those embracing AI [28][29] - The future may see a continued emphasis on live performances and a more segmented market as consumer preferences evolve [28][29]