沪指七连阳，A股跨年春季躁动已经启动？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in market sentiment, with a classic "year-end to spring" rally expected to unfold, driven by favorable conditions such as valuation levels and liquidity [1][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has recorded seven consecutive days of gains since December 17, reaching a closing value of 3959.62 points on December 25, up by 0.47% [1]. - Over 3700 stocks in the market have risen, with notable surges in commercial aerospace and robotics sectors, indicating a rotation among various value stocks [1]. Trading Activity - The total trading volume of A-shares has surpassed 407 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record, with 19 stocks exceeding 100 billion yuan in trading volume [3]. - The recent strong performance has heightened expectations for the traditional "spring rally," with key conditions for its initiation becoming increasingly favorable [3]. Conditions for Spring Rally - Huaxi Securities identifies three necessary conditions for the "spring rally": reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite. These conditions are gradually being met [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is 14 times, which is below the historical median plus one standard deviation, indicating a relatively reasonable valuation [4]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for future policies, with expectations for increased fiscal spending in 2026, particularly in technology innovation and domestic demand expansion [5][4]. - Continuous net purchases of broad-based ETFs by major institutional investors are seen as a key driving force for the market [7][8]. Historical Patterns and Sector Performance - Historical analysis shows that the spring rally often occurs from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, computers, and electronics historically performing well during this period [14][16]. - The report indicates that the probability of a strong rally is higher when liquidity improves and external shocks are limited, suggesting that the upcoming spring rally is unlikely to be weak [16]. Global Market Resonance - There is a significant correlation between global markets and China's spring rally, with high success rates observed in indices such as France's CAC40 and South Korea's composite index [18].