植田和男“鹰”声嘹亮！物价已接近目标，2026年或继续加息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is adjusting its monetary policy in response to a resilient economic recovery, raising interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% while aiming for a stable inflation target of 2% [3][5][12]. Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy - Japan's economy is showing moderate recovery despite external pressures such as U.S. tariff policies and corporate earnings facing downward pressure [2][10]. - The central bank's decision to raise interest rates reflects a careful assessment of the economic situation, marking a turning point from a decade-long period of aggressive monetary easing [9][10]. Wage and Price Dynamics - The tightening labor market has led to significant changes in corporate behavior regarding wage and price setting, with expectations of wage increases continuing into the next year's labor negotiations [4][16]. - A "virtuous cycle" of wage and price dynamics is being established, where increased corporate earnings lead to higher wages, stimulating consumer spending and further driving up prices [17][21]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan anticipates that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target by the second half of 2026 to 2027, supported by a solid wage-price pass-through mechanism and improved inflation expectations [24]. - Current consumer price inflation, excluding fresh food, is around 3%, with expectations of gradual price increases in food and other goods due to rising wages [22][23]. Structural Reforms and Future Projections - The government is implementing a "strong economic comprehensive strategy" to support the virtuous cycle through measures that reduce corporate burdens and improve wage-setting environments [23]. - The ongoing structural changes in the labor market, driven by a declining working-age population, necessitate improvements in labor productivity to address supply constraints [23].