星展银行纪沫：2026全球经济或超预期上行 中国兼具经济稳定器和科技助推器角色

Global Economic Outlook - The OECD predicts a global GDP growth rate of 2.9% for 2026, with optimistic views contrasting current market sentiments [1] - Factors driving the US economy include interest rate cuts, the implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act," ongoing AI infrastructure investments, increased defense spending, and enhanced manufacturing investments [2] - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from China's economic spillover effects, with Asia and Southeast Asia likely to show optimistic growth due to trade and supply chain investments [2] Inflation and Risks - US inflation is projected to stabilize between 2.8% and 3% in 2026, influenced by tariff policy easing, while China's low inflation supports consumer purchasing power and asset price stability [3] - The risk of an AI bubble bursting is considered low, as AI investments are still in early stages and supported by the real economy [4] China's Economic Transformation - China is in a critical transition from quantitative to qualitative changes, having achieved global leadership in 54 out of 64 core technologies, particularly in energy and high-end materials [5][6] - The driving forces behind China's technological advancements include energy production and storage capabilities, a large talent pool, and a significant share in global manufacturing [6] - Policy coordination is essential, focusing on traditional industry upgrades and support for emerging sectors, while maintaining a balanced monetary policy [6] Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain its role as a "global currency stabilizer," with increasing attractiveness for international capital allocation in 2026 [6]