乳饮2025|剥离、坚守、卷上游，新势力的“三盘棋”

Core Insights - The Chinese food and beverage industry is undergoing significant transformation in 2025, with traditional companies facing challenges such as channel restructuring, product upgrades, and public opinion crises, while emerging brands are rapidly rising through differentiated positioning and digital marketing [1] Group 1: Yuanqi Forest - Yuanqi Forest has completed a strategic "slimming" by spinning off its dairy brand Beihai Pasture to focus on its core beverage categories, including sparkling water, electrolyte water, health water, iced tea, and milk tea [3][4] - In 2025, Yuanqi Forest achieved a 26% year-on-year growth in overall performance, significantly exceeding the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry average growth rate of 4.8% [4] - The company has invested 7.25 billion yuan in building six large factories, achieving an annual production capacity of 6.5 billion bottles of beverages by the end of 2024 [6] Group 2: Guozi Shule - Guozi Shule has maintained "resilient growth" in the competitive no-sugar tea market and plans to focus on this segment while also promoting electrolyte water starting in 2026 [9][10] - The no-sugar tea market has shown a slowdown in growth, with sales growth rates declining compared to the previous year, indicating a shift towards a more mature market phase [9][10] - Guozi Shule has diversified its product offerings, including no-sugar tea, electrolyte drinks, and various other beverage categories, supported by its self-built factories [11] Group 3: Renyang Yitou Niu - Renyang Yitou Niu is leveraging product innovation and deep market penetration to build a multi-layered product matrix targeting children, families, and young consumers [13] - The company has launched differentiated products, including lychee-flavored fermented milk and A2-type children's milk, while maintaining a high self-sufficiency rate of 95% for its milk sources [14] - The dairy industry is experiencing a structural adjustment, with a decline in liquid milk sales, highlighting the need for continuous product innovation to meet evolving consumer demands [15]