人民币汇率破7，可持续吗？

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time in 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also broke the 7.01 threshold, marking a new high since September 27, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 7.0 level is a significant "watershed" for the RMB exchange rate, causing market participants to hold their breath as it approaches [2]. - The short-term probability of the RMB breaking 7 is high, but sustaining below this level in the long term faces multiple uncertainties [3]. - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed to a combination of factors that have been building up over time [4]. Group 2: External Influences - The weakening of the USD index has created favorable external conditions, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle since September, reducing rates by a total of 75 basis points this year [5][8]. - The expectation of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant drop in the USD index, facilitating the appreciation of the RMB and other non-USD currencies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Factors - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a relaxed stance towards the RMB's appreciation, allowing the currency to strengthen without intervention, as indicated by the adjustment of the counter-cyclical factor to a positive value [9][11]. - Year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements have contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as companies convert their foreign earnings into RMB [12][13]. Group 4: Economic Context - The current RMB appreciation reflects a broader struggle for "pricing power" and "game rules" in the global market, with the U.S. attempting to reverse its industrial hollowing through protectionist measures [16][17]. - China's response has been to avoid excessive competition and allow the RMB to appreciate, thereby shifting costs to Western economies [18][21]. - The recent trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first 11 months of the year indicates China's strong export performance amid these dynamics [18]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The current RMB appreciation is seen as a strategic move by the state to prepare for manufacturing upgrades, although there may be measures to control rapid appreciation in the short term [21][22].