快递行业业务量持续增长 反内卷利好单票价格回升

Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase per package in 2025, with "anti-involution" becoming a key term, indicating a shift towards improved profitability and investment opportunities in the A-share express delivery sector [1] Group 1: Business Volume and Growth - The express delivery industry in China is benefiting from robust internet infrastructure and diverse e-commerce platforms, maintaining resilient growth in business volume [2] - The core growth drivers have shifted from "penetration rate increase" to "structural growth," characterized by smaller package sizes, increased reverse logistics due to higher return rates, and the emergence of new e-commerce models like live streaming and community group buying [2][3] - In 2024, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 13,081.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, with express delivery business volume and revenue reaching 1,745 million packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21% and 13% [3] Group 2: Industry Concentration and Pricing - The express delivery industry is seeing an increase in concentration, with the CR8 (market share of the top eight companies) reaching 87.0% by October 2025, indicating a slight increase in market concentration [6] - The average revenue per package in October 2025 was 7.48 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, but with signs of recovery as companies like Shentong and Yunda reported increases in revenue per package [4][6] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The express delivery sector is characterized by significant scale effects, where cost reductions in the entire logistics chain can lead to lower prices and increased volume, creating a positive feedback loop [8] - The use of unmanned vehicles for delivery is projected to significantly reduce transportation costs, with estimates showing a potential decrease from 0.16 yuan to 0.05 yuan per package, representing a 69% cost reduction [8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - A-share express delivery companies have seen their stock prices in a downward trend, with dynamic P/E ratios remaining low; for instance, SF Holding's dynamic P/E ratio was 17.60 as of December 17, 2025, down from a peak of 121.04 yuan in 2021 [9] - As profitability improves in the express delivery sector, investment opportunities are becoming increasingly attractive for investors [9]