“十五五”首席观察｜鲁政委：结构性货币政策工具有望“加量降价”

Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's economic development will focus on using domestic circulation stability to counter international circulation uncertainties, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in both supply and demand to solidify consumption growth [1][12][13] - The transition from "incremental stimulation" to "structural optimization" in consumption policies is necessary to better align supply with the evolving demand for upgraded consumption [3] Monetary Policy - Traditional and innovative monetary policy tools will have ample room for action in 2026, with expectations for continued reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to lower financing costs for the real economy [5] - Structural monetary policy tools may see enhancements, including increasing the scale and reducing the cost of effective tools, to better stimulate credit growth and avoid idle funds [5] Currency Exchange - The RMB is expected to experience a "strong first, weak later" trend against the USD in 2026, with fluctuations influenced by both domestic monetary policy and international economic conditions [6] Financial Services - The "Five Major Articles" will guide financial services towards key areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, with potential breakthroughs anticipated in 2026 [7][8][9][10] Housing and Consumer Policies - To alleviate preventive savings pressure on residents, policies such as increasing the supply of affordable housing and introducing home purchase interest subsidies are recommended [4] - Enhancing public education services and optimizing healthcare support for vulnerable groups are also crucial for boosting consumer confidence and spending [4] Gold Market - The gold market is expected to maintain upward momentum in 2026, driven by factors such as expanding debt among major economies and geopolitical tensions, alongside the People's Bank of China's renewed interest in gold reserves [11]