Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-12-25 14:55Core Viewpoint - China's fixed asset investment is facing a phase of adjustment pressure, with a potential annual negative growth rate of -1.0% predicted for 2025, marking the first decline since data collection began [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Recovery Strategies - Investment recovery should rely on the revolutionary opportunities in the "AI+" sector, as traditional demand is saturated and investment returns are declining [1][2]. - AI is identified as a key driver of modern industrial systems and is expected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with a projected global AI investment of $1.2619 trillion by 2029 [2]. Group 2: Role of Capital Markets - The government should transition from being a direct investor to a market supporter, enhancing the role of capital markets in resource allocation [3]. - Direct financing in China is currently only 11.7%, compared to 73.7% in the U.S., indicating a need to strengthen the direct financing system for industrial transformation [3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the pace of technology IPOs, as current financing for tech IPOs is low, with A-share market fundraising in 2024 expected to be less than a quarter of that in the U.S. [4]. - Introduce long-term capital into the stock market by improving the equity allocation of pension funds, which currently stands at about 10% in China compared to 49% in the U.S. [4]. - Enhance support for technology innovation bonds, addressing structural issues such as the low participation of private enterprises, which account for only 5.7% of issuers [5].