人民币汇率创15个月新高！管涛：双向波动或是常态

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the "7" threshold against the USD for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, marking a new high since September 2024 [1] Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by a weakening USD, with the dollar index dropping from above 100 to below 98 since November [2] - China's robust economic fundamentals, including a trade surplus of $1.0758 trillion for the first 11 months of 2025, have bolstered confidence in the RMB [2] - Increased demand for currency settlement by enterprises at year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, although this "settlement wave" is not the main driver of the current appreciation [2][3] Group 2: Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Experts caution against expecting a new cycle of sustained RMB appreciation, predicting that the exchange rate will likely exhibit two-way fluctuations rather than a unilateral trend [4] - The future trajectory of the USD is uncertain, with expectations of a potential rebound after a period of decline, which could diminish the RMB's appreciation momentum [4][5] - The complexity of China's foreign trade environment and potential geopolitical tensions may also introduce volatility in the RMB exchange rate [5][6] Group 3: Implications for Enterprises - The appreciation of the RMB presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses, benefiting capital markets and importers while exerting pressure on exporters [9][10] - Exporters are experiencing exchange losses due to the rapid appreciation, affecting their competitiveness and order flow [10][11] - Companies are advised to adopt systematic risk management strategies to mitigate the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations, focusing on maintaining a neutral stance towards currency risk [11][12]