如何让物价合理回升：难点在哪里

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for achieving reasonable price recovery in China, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and employment while addressing structural issues in the economy [2][21]. Group 1: Economic Context - The current period of price stagnation in China began in 2012, with PPI entering negative territory and CPI fluctuating between 0-1% since 2022, raising concerns about economic health [3][6]. - China's PPI remained negative for approximately 8.5 years from 2012 to 2025, primarily due to structural issues such as overcapacity and declining consumer demand [6][21]. - The shift in PPI trends is attributed to various factors, including global commodity price changes, the impact of stimulus policies, and the structural transformation of China's manufacturing sector [4][5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses - The Chinese government has implemented supply-side structural reforms since 2015 to address overcapacity and stabilize prices, focusing on reducing leverage and excess inventory [4][5]. - The recent Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key monetary policy considerations [2][21]. - The article suggests that expanding domestic demand, particularly through consumption, is crucial for price recovery, as current investment growth is hindered by low returns and overcapacity [11][14][21]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The article identifies three main reasons for the current consumption slump: declining wage growth, a rigid income distribution structure, and a weak real estate market [14][20]. - The aging population and consumption downgrade are contributing to reduced demand in sectors like alcohol, indicating broader demographic challenges [6][14]. - The need for fiscal policy reform is emphasized, with a focus on increasing the income share of middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption and support price recovery [18][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article warns that achieving reasonable price recovery will require sustained efforts to address structural, cyclical, and institutional issues, rather than relying solely on monetary policy [21]. - It suggests that significant fiscal measures are necessary to enhance consumer income and stabilize the real estate market, which is vital for overall economic health [20][21].