Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-24 02:39Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]