创源股份(300703)公司深度研究：跨境已扬帆 内销待花开

Core Viewpoint - The company is transitioning from a B2B model to a B2C model, focusing on self-owned brands and domestic sales, while achieving significant revenue growth in its fitness and wellness segment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Transition and Growth - The company started as an export OEM for stationery and has recently expanded into the home fitness e-commerce sector, with a change in actual control to Ningbo State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in 2022 [1] - The company has a three-year profit commitment of 240 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with revenue growth rates of +3% in H1 2023, +43% in H1 2024, and +20% in H1 2025 [1] - The share of self-owned brands (OBM) is expected to increase from 15% in 2020 to 30% in 2024, indicating a shift from OEM to OBM [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Supply Chain - The educational and leisure segment is stabilizing, primarily targeting the North American market, with revenue growth rates of 0.57% in 2023, 23.83% in 2024, and 3.15% in 2025 [1] - The supply chain, featuring dual bases in Ningbo and Anhui along with production capacity in Vietnam, supports flexible customization for various product categories and small-batch orders [1] - The company is developing its own brands like PAPERAGE, and the Vietnam base is not yet at full capacity, suggesting potential for further margin improvement as domestic cultural and IP businesses grow [1] Group 3: Fitness Brand Development - The fitness brand is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected revenue increase of nearly 140% in 2024, and core products ranking highly in Amazon's niche categories [2] - The company is focusing on direct sales through its official website, with website revenue surpassing Amazon's by September 2025, and has opened its first offline experience store in the U.S. in April [2] - The operational model combines multi-platform traffic generation, offline experiences, and website conversion to enhance user engagement and brand pricing power [2] Group 4: Domestic Market Expansion - The company is in the early stages of domestic market expansion, with only 1.7% of revenue from domestic sales in H1 2025, and plans to focus on three main areas: cultural products, IP toys, and AI toys [2] - The "Jinfeng" brand is collaborating with famous temples for cultural products, leveraging traditional cultural recognition and emotional value [2] - The company has established resources in both upstream IP and downstream channels, with products already in over 500 boutique bookstores and toy stores [2] Group 5: Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.28 billion, 2.76 billion, and 3.40 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +21%, and +23% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 118 million, 158 million, and 200 million yuan, with growth rates of +10%, +34%, and +27% respectively, leading to EPS of 0.66, 0.88, and 1.11 yuan [3] - The company is expected to benefit from synergies in IP development, channel integration, and brand promotion, with a target price of 31.61 yuan based on a 36x PE valuation for 2026, initiating coverage with a "buy" rating [3]