分层收敛传导畅，政策协同预期稳——2025年银行间货币市场回顾与展望

Core Viewpoint - The interbank money market in 2025 is characterized by reasonable liquidity, a steady decline in interest rates, and continuous optimization of market structure under a moderately loose monetary policy environment, supported by effective central bank regulation [1][2][19]. Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy in 2025, utilizing various tools to ensure reasonable liquidity, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, leading to a decrease in the comprehensive financing cost [2][3]. - Structural monetary policy tools were employed to direct financial resources towards key sectors, with a total structural monetary policy tool balance reaching 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September [2][3]. Market Operation Characteristics - The overall trend of money market interest rates showed a moderate decline, with the average DR001 and DR007 rates at 1.52% and 1.64% respectively by December 9, 2025, down 14 and 17 basis points from the previous year [4][5]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank money market reached 166.385 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in buyout repos and a decline in credit borrowing, indicating a structural shift in market behavior [6][7]. Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit turned negative for the first time in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of 31.9 trillion yuan but a net repayment of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a contraction in net financing due to shortened issuance terms [7][8]. - The market showed a "long-short increase" trend, with the proportion of 1-year products decreasing while 3-month and 6-month products increased, indicating banks' need to control costs amid a loose monetary environment [8][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The liquidity in the money market remained stable and ample, supported by effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, with a net injection of 56.396 billion yuan through open market operations [12][13]. - Weak demand for financing from the real economy, influenced by external uncertainties and local government debt pressures, led to a gradual decline in money market interest rates [14][15]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The economic outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, with expectations of continued stable growth supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity maintenance [19][20][21]. - The central bank is expected to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 25 to 50 basis points in 2026, with a further moderate decline in interest rates anticipated to reduce social financing costs [21].