2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-12-25 18:02Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices, driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors, has raised concerns within the industry regarding the impact on downstream companies and the overall market stability [1][3][11]. Group 1: Price Movements - Tin prices have reached new highs, with LME tin increasing by 11.5% and SHFE tin by over 13% since December 2025, with a notable rise of over 40,000 yuan per ton in just half a month [1][5]. - The LME three-month tin futures contract and SHFE main contract have both set new records, surpassing $43,900 per ton and 349,000 yuan per ton, respectively [5]. - As of December 24, the SHFE main contract saw a decline of over 3%, trading at 335,800 yuan per ton [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar is stabilizing, with domestic tin smelting capacity fully utilized, resulting in a production of 189,000 tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [7]. - Despite growth in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and automotive electronics, traditional demand remains stable, with global tin consumption expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, slightly below production growth [7]. - The global tin market is currently experiencing a supply surplus of approximately 10,000 tons, attributed to a slowdown in overseas demand [7]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - The rapid price increase has created significant pressure on downstream tin-consuming industries, such as solder, tinplate, and chemicals, leading to challenges in fulfilling long-term contracts and maintaining product quality [3][11]. - The Tin Industry Association has called for rational market behavior to avoid speculative bubbles and ensure price stability, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to pricing [11][12]. - Companies like Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin are positioned differently within the market, with varying potential for performance based on their business models and exposure to tin price fluctuations [11][12].