12月25日每日研选丨突破4500美元如探囊取物 黄金新一轮行情缘何又至？

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has historically surpassed $4,500 per ounce, driven by a combination of macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and capital allocation dynamics [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - Weakening U.S. macroeconomic and employment data has strengthened the expectations for risk aversion and interest rate cuts, providing crucial support for gold prices [1] - The market's concerns about further tightening of U.S. monetary policy have diminished, allowing gold to maintain a relatively stable performance despite high prices [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and expectations for liquidity easing are resonating in the market, with the new Fed chair nominee aligning with rate cut expectations [2] - The Fed's recent actions, including a $40 billion monthly liquidity injection, have further supported the upward movement of precious metal prices [2] - Divergent policy adjustments among major global economies, such as the Bank of England's rate cut and the European Central Bank's stable rates, have created a favorable environment for gold prices [2] Group 3: Capital Allocation Demand - There is a rigid growth in capital allocation demand, with private sector funds becoming the dominant force in the gold market [2] - Global gold ETFs have seen six consecutive months of net inflows, with November's inflow reaching $5.2 billion, driven by increased purchases from Asian investors [2] - The perception of U.S. Treasury bonds as "risk-free" has been damaged, leading long-term funds to view gold as an important alternative asset [2] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are increasingly recognized as a significant factor supporting gold prices, driven by motives such as asset management and preparation for extreme scenarios [3] - Central banks are adjusting their asset allocations between U.S. Treasuries and gold to optimize returns during price volatility [3] - In the context of a reshaping monetary system, central banks are accumulating gold to mitigate uncertainties, which influences the price stability of gold over time [3] Group 5: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, international gold prices are expected to remain in a high volatility range, with liquidity potentially tightening as holiday trading slows [4] - Looking towards 2026, significant investment opportunities in the gold market may arise around February, coinciding with expected increases in U.S. Treasury issuance [4] - The combination of rising debt levels and financing needs may lead to a peak in long-term U.S. Treasury supply, potentially driving gold prices higher [4]