机构：2026年中国降息降准有空间

Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed particularly well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index has risen by 28.02% and the CSI 300 by 17.20% in China, while the Korean Composite Index has surged by 71.12% [1] - The MSCI Vietnam Index has increased by 61.08%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan has risen by 26.37% [1] - In contrast, major US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have seen increases of 21.33% and 16.95%, respectively [1] Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4] - HSBC has reduced its overweight position in the US market, emphasizing the importance of Asian markets [4] - Fidelity International is focusing on emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa for more attractive valuations [4] AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is projected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy [10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to rise, providing strong support for economic growth, while monetary policy will aim to support the real economy [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] Asset Allocation - Given the high correlation between traditional assets, diversification is increasingly important, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [13] - Gold is expected to maintain its position as a significant diversification asset, supported by central bank demand and a weak dollar [13] - In fixed income, the trend of de-dollarization and Asian policy easing creates favorable conditions for local currency government bonds [14]