经济稳中向好支持汇率走强

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal resilience strengthening, precise policy adjustments, and a shift in market expectations [1] Group 1: External Factors - The primary driving force behind the recent Renminbi appreciation is the shift in the US dollar environment, particularly due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to suppress the long-term trajectory of the dollar [1] - The US dollar index has declined approximately 2.0% since late November, reflecting the enhanced expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Internal Factors - China's economic resilience and attractiveness provide solid fundamental support for the Renminbi, especially with marginal improvements in economic data and rising policy expectations [1] - China's trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion USD for the first time in the first 11 months, showcasing unexpected resilience in exports [1] - The performance of China's capital markets has attracted continuous foreign investment, with international investors increasing their holdings of Chinese government bonds [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Several foreign institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Goldman Sachs, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, indicating increased foreign interest in allocating assets in Renminbi [1]