金银农产品集体暴走，2026牛市是“续航”还是“转向”？

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - By the end of 2025, the global commodity market is expected to experience a strong upward trend due to factors such as climate anomalies, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and mismatched supply-demand dynamics [1] - Precious metals are continuing their bull market, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4550 per ounce and COMEX silver exceeding $72 per ounce, both poised for their strongest annual performance since 1979 [1] - Copper prices have reached a historical high of $11,952 per ton, while platinum prices are also rising due to three consecutive years of supply shortages [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Agricultural futures prices are showing mixed trends due to dynamic structural supply-demand contradictions, with corn prices continuing to rise while wheat, soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal have shown signs of recovery after a phase of decline [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and extreme weather have contributed to a rebound in U.S. wheat prices, which have risen for five consecutive days as of December 24 [6] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about grain and edible oil supply disruptions, particularly affecting the Black Sea region [7] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - At the beginning of the year, international gold prices fluctuated between $2600 and $2700 per ounce, but have now surpassed $4550, marking an increase of over 60% for the year [3] - Silver has outperformed gold with a year-to-date price increase of approximately 140%, narrowing the gold-silver ratio from 85:1 at the beginning of the year to below 70 [3] - The rise in precious metal prices is driven by two main factors: increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and heightened geopolitical risks that boost market demand for safe-haven assets [4][5] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, there are differing opinions on whether the commodity market will continue its bull run or shift direction, with some analysts predicting a decrease in macro volatility that could weaken gold's safe-haven demand [10] - Other analysts believe that the establishment of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle and weakening dollar credit will support precious metals, with ongoing strong demand from central banks and industrial consumption [10] - In the agricultural sector, short-term support for U.S. soybean prices is expected from China's purchases, but uncertainties remain regarding the volume of these purchases and the overall favorable planting conditions in South America [10]