3 6 Ke·2025-12-25 23:31Core Insights - The key focus for AI in 2026 will be on reducing computing costs and the implementation of AI investments in both software and hardware, with new hardware deployment representing true incremental opportunities [1] Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is expected to be significantly impacted by the upcoming mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot, which is anticipated to change human interaction and productivity [2] - The analysis of the humanoid robot supply chain will cover the composition of the industry, challenges in hardware industrialization, and opportunities in humanoid robot hardware [2] Humanoid Robot Characteristics - Humanoid robots are defined by two core features: the "form" resembling a human and the "brain" that enables multi-modal perception, continuous learning, and decision-making [2][3] - Achieving the general capabilities required for humanoid robots necessitates advancements in computing power, algorithms, data, and the integration of hardware and software [3] Hardware Challenges - The hardware requirements for humanoid robots differ significantly from other industries, with some components needing to be developed from scratch, such as highly sensitive tactile sensors [4] - The cost of hardware must be sufficiently low to enable widespread adoption, as the estimated future demand for humanoid robots is substantial [4] Supply Chain Breakdown - The humanoid robot industry can be divided into upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, with a complex supply chain similar to that of the electric vehicle industry [5][6] - Upstream focuses on collaboration between manufacturers and suppliers of actuators, sensors, and control systems, with a diverse range of cooperation models [7] - Midstream consists of manufacturers of humanoid robots, primarily concentrated in the US and China, with a mix of established companies and startups [8][9] Upstream Hardware Analysis - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to have a production capacity of 100,000 units annually by the end of 2026, with significant potential for growth in the humanoid robot market [12] - The hardware components of the Optimus robot include perception, decision-making, and execution layers, with specific focus on sensors and actuators [14][36] Sensor Technologies - Visual sensors are critical for environmental perception, with Tesla opting for a 2D camera approach, while other manufacturers may use 3D cameras and LIDAR [15] - Tactile sensors, essential for human-like interaction, face significant technological challenges and are a key area for development [16][20] - Six-dimensional force sensors are crucial for motion control, with a focus on domestic alternatives to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers [22][27] Actuator Technologies - Electric motors are the primary drive mechanism for humanoid robots, with a focus on developing high-performance, cost-effective solutions [37] - Linear and rotary actuators are essential for joint movement, with a significant emphasis on the development of planetary roller screws and gear reducers [46][58] Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot market is characterized by high entry barriers and significant opportunities in the development of tactile sensors and actuators, particularly in the context of domestic production capabilities [69]