铂谨防回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices reaching historical highs, particularly platinum, which has seen significant price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum and palladium prices have surged due to a structural supply-demand imbalance expected to persist until 2025, with tight physical supply supporting price increases [1]. - The NYMEX platinum has initiated a major upward trend since the second half of the year, influenced by macroeconomic easing expectations and capital inflows [1]. - The recent price spikes have led to increased market volatility, prompting the Guangxi Futures Exchange to adjust trading limits and margin requirements to mitigate excessive trading sentiment [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Despite a 4.3% increase in U.S. GDP growth in Q3, consumer confidence has been declining, raising concerns about future economic conditions [1]. - Political influences on monetary policy have been highlighted, with potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and discussions around adjusting inflation targets, contributing to a sustained loose monetary environment [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a potential supply-demand rebalancing in the platinum market by 2026, which could lead to a slight surplus if certain conditions are met [2]. - Current market sentiment appears overly optimistic, with prices having already priced in future shortages, indicating a potential divergence from fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2]. - Recent price corrections, particularly in palladium, suggest a shift in market sentiment from unidirectional optimism to a phase of high volatility and sensitivity [2][3].