Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-25 23:48Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases for silicon wafers, driven by rising upstream silicon material costs and supply constraints, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for wafer manufacturers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Four leading silicon wafer companies have collectively raised prices, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan per piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan, and 210N at 1.7 yuan, averaging a 12% increase [1]. - The average price increase for various silicon wafer models ranges from 3.3% to 9.8% this week, with expectations of further price hikes due to low shipping willingness among manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon, a key raw material for wafer production, has risen above 65,000 yuan per ton, reflecting over a 20% increase from previous transaction prices, significantly impacting wafer production costs [2]. - Polysilicon accounts for 48% of the production cost of silicon wafers, making it a critical factor in pricing and profitability for wafer manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Policy Support - The solar industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with major polysilicon companies voluntarily reducing production, leading to a 29.6% year-on-year decline in output from January to October [2]. - A joint initiative by ten leading companies to establish a solar storage platform aims to stabilize prices and support the recovery of polysilicon and wafer prices through market-driven mechanisms [2][3]. Group 4: Company Insights - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) is highlighted for its competitive advantage in granular silicon and low energy consumption, with a target price of 1.54 HKD due to expected price increases [4]. - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), a leader in large-size wafers, is expected to benefit from price increases due to its strong price transmission capabilities [4]. - Jinyang New Energy (01121) is involved in upgrading production lines to enhance efficiency and competitiveness in the market [4].