2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-12-26 00:06Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of photovoltaic (PV) modules is primarily driven by rising upstream material costs, particularly silver paste, which has seen significant price hikes due to surging silver prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - Major PV manufacturers like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have raised module prices by 0.02 to 0.05 yuan per watt, citing increased costs of upstream materials [1]. - Silver futures and spot prices have reached historical highs, with increases of over 130% and 150% respectively this year [1]. - Despite the price increases in upstream materials, the price of PV modules has only risen by less than 2% this year, lagging behind other components like silicon wafers and battery cells, which have seen increases of over 19% and 15% respectively [4][6]. Group 2: Cost Structure Changes - The cost structure of PV modules has shifted, with silver paste now accounting for 17% of the total cost, surpassing silicon materials, which have decreased in cost share due to falling prices [3]. - The average transaction price of N-type multi-crystalline silicon has risen from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 53,900 yuan/ton by December 24, marking a 29.88% increase [4]. Group 3: Investment Returns and Market Sentiment - The internal rate of return (IRR) for PV projects has been negatively impacted by declining feed-in tariffs, with current IRR expectations for domestic projects ranging from 6% to 7%, down from previous standards of 7% to 7.5% [5][6]. - There is a strong correlation between module prices and IRR, suggesting that rising module prices could deter investment in new installations [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Demand - The demand for PV modules is currently limited, and expectations for rapid market growth are diminishing, with the industry facing a potential inflection point in demand growth [8]. - The National Energy Administration reported that from January to October, China added 252.87 GW of new PV capacity, but the market is expected to stabilize rather than experience rapid growth in the future [8].