张尧浠：黄金年末预高位盘整、但来年仍剑指5000美元目标

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience high-level consolidation at the end of the year, with a target of reaching $5,000 in the coming year [1][4][6]. Market Analysis - On December 24, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,525.42 but faced profit-taking before the Christmas holiday, leading to expectations of a short-term correction [1]. - The opening of the market on December 25 saw gold prices strengthen due to the recovery of liquidity post-holiday and bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations [3]. - The dollar index showed signs of recovery but remained under pressure, suggesting limited impact on gold prices in the short term [3]. Future Projections - Predictions indicate that gold prices could rise by 27% in 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with further increases expected in 2025 driven by tariff policy concerns, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing central bank purchases [4][6]. - The average forecast for gold prices in 2026 is between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce, with a potential high of $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain stable [6]. - The fundamental factors supporting gold prices over the past two years are expected to persist and strengthen, contributing to a bullish market outlook for the next year [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in gold prices, dispelling previous bearish patterns and suggesting the potential for a new bull market [8]. - Weekly charts show a strong opening and breakout to new highs, increasing bullish momentum and indicating a target of $4,600 [9]. - Daily charts maintain an upward trend despite some weakening in bullish momentum, with key support levels identified at $4,480 and $4,460 [11].