白银“不断创新高”的底气：伦敦现货白银的挤兑愈演愈烈

Core Insights - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, indicated by a key interest rate metric showing extreme tightness in silver spot supply [1][6] - The one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. interest rates has plummeted to -7.18%, suggesting traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate physical silver over future delivery [1][3] - This inversion indicates a significant shift in market behavior, with investors seeking physical delivery rather than holding paper contracts, leading to a "run" on the London spot silver market [1][6] Group 1 - The negative one-year silver swap rate indicates that the demand for immediate physical silver is outpacing supply, creating upward pressure on silver prices [1][3] - Current spot silver prices have surpassed $70 and continue to reach new highs, reflecting ongoing market tension [3] - The disparity between spot and forward prices is causing buyers to demand physical delivery, putting pressure on the paper silver system [6] Group 2 - The London market is under significant strain due to the high leverage of paper silver certificates, which far exceed the available physical silver inventory [7] - This leverage poses a risk of a "margin call" scenario if demand for physical extraction trends upward, potentially leading to a rapid depletion of physical stocks [7] - Price discrepancies between global markets, particularly between the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the New York Commodity Exchange, are incentivizing traders to move silver from London to Shanghai, further straining London’s physical inventory [7]