齐盛期货：焦煤回升持续性存疑

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal futures is driven by macro policy expectations and changes in supply-demand dynamics, despite the fundamental market conditions remaining unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" in mid-December has been a pivotal factor in shifting market sentiment, imposing stricter coal consumption standards for power generation and heating [1]. - This policy aims to eliminate outdated production capacity and suppress low-price homogeneous competition, which is expected to reshape the overall valuation of the coal industry [1]. - The Central Economic Work Conference's stance on addressing excessive competition has provided emotional support for undervalued black commodities [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Coking coal supply is characterized by weak domestic production and strong imports, with major coal-producing regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia reducing output as they complete annual production assessments [2]. - Safety production policies have tightened, further exacerbating supply constraints, while imports of Mongolian coal have remained high, with customs clearance rates peaking at over 1,600 trucks per day in mid-December [2]. - Despite rumors of restrictions on imported coal, actual customs data indicates that the influx of Mongolian coal has not been hindered, leading to an accumulation of inventory at ports [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The high volume of imported Mongolian coal is suppressing domestic coking coal prices, as the typical seasonal supply contraction is offset by the influx of imports and high social inventory levels [3]. - Price differentiation among coal types is evident, with main coking coal and fat coal showing resilience, while other types like lean coal and gas coal face significant price pressure due to weak demand and ample supply [3]. - The steel industry is currently in a traditional consumption lull, with average daily pig iron production dropping to approximately 2.265 million tons, leading to reduced consumption of coking coal and coke [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Demand Outlook - Coking coal inventories at steel mills are at 8.0499 million tons, with a usable days supply of 13.02 days, while independent coking plants hold 10.3629 million tons with 12.4 days of supply [4]. - The winter storage replenishment by coking steel enterprises is expected to be delayed this year due to sufficient social inventory and the later timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that coking coal futures may maintain a strong trend, but the sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, with potential inventory pressures from imports and steel production levels limiting price increases [5].