宝城期货：螺纹钢上行驱动力不足

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel futures prices have shown a low-level fluctuation since December, with the main contract oscillating between 3030 to 3180 yuan/ton, recently returning to the upper range of this interval. However, the spot prices are following suit but are limited by weak downstream demand as it enters the off-season [1]. Group 1: Short-term Positive Factors - The recent rebound of rebar steel futures prices is supported by three main positive factors: first, the renewed policy expectations have strengthened the "anti-involution" trading logic, leading to a strong rise in related varieties and boosting overall market sentiment [2]. - Second, raw material prices have stabilized, particularly iron ore prices, which have shown strong performance, providing support for steel prices from the cost side [2]. - Third, under low supply conditions, inventory pressure has significantly eased [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production Dynamics - Despite the low supply situation supporting steel prices, the production of rebar steel is expected to recover, which may weaken the positive effects. The latest weekly production is 1.8168 million tons, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, down 20.27% year-on-year [2]. - The profit margins for short-process steel mills have improved significantly, with only 14.05% of 77 independent electric arc furnace steel mills reporting losses. Some regions have achieved profitability under current cost calculations [2]. - The core factor previously limiting rebar steel supply, capacity indicators, will dissipate after the New Year, creating conditions for a recovery in rebar steel production [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains at a low level, with the latest weekly apparent demand at 2.0864 million tons, which, despite a week-on-week increase of 55,500 tons, is still at the lowest level in recent years, down 7.42% year-on-year [3]. - High-frequency daily transaction and cement outflow metrics also indicate that demand related to construction is weak, further confirming the sluggish performance of downstream industries [3]. - It is expected that rebar steel demand will continue to show seasonal weakness, and if supply rebounds as anticipated, industry contradictions may intensify [3]. Group 4: Cost Support Dynamics - Although iron ore prices remain high, providing some cost support for steel, the supply-demand dynamics for iron ore are weak, making prices susceptible to downward pressure [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills are reducing production as the year-end approaches, leading to a continued decline in iron ore consumption [4]. - The overall supply pressure remains despite seasonal declines in domestic mining production, with high port arrivals and shipments of iron ore expected to continue [4]. Conclusion - In summary, while short-term positive factors have driven rebar steel futures prices back to the upper range of their fluctuation, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain weak, and the market is likely to continue experiencing low-level fluctuations in the near term, with a focus on the recovery of production in construction steel mills [2][3][4].