铜价 重心将震荡上移

Group 1 - The strategic value of copper is increasingly highlighted as a key metal for energy transition and AI infrastructure construction, supported by financial attributes and concerns over tightening copper concentrate supply [1] - Since 2025, global macro policies have shifted focus from anti-inflation to stabilizing growth, providing a solid bottom support for non-ferrous metal prices, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle that injects ample liquidity into the commodity market [2] - The profitability of the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry in China grew by 33.30% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a return of pricing power to the resource supply side [2] Group 2 - Global copper supply faces two major constraints: declining ore quality and insufficient industry capital investment, with the average copper ore grade dropping to 0.42%, significantly raising marginal production costs [2] - The processing fee for copper has rapidly transmitted the shortage from the mining end to the smelting sector, with 2025 spot processing fees briefly falling into negative territory, leading to potential losses in the smelting industry [3] - The U.S. tariff policies have caused structural high premiums in the COMEX copper market, resulting in a significant imbalance in global inventory distribution, with U.S. copper stocks accumulating while Asia and Europe face tight spot supply [4] Group 3 - The global copper market is expected to shift from a slight surplus in 2026 to a substantial shortage, driven by rigid constraints in mining capacity and passive production cuts in the smelting sector, while demand growth driven by AI and energy transition remains highly certain [4] - The anticipated core price fluctuation range for LME copper in 2026 is projected to be between $10,000 and $12,500 per ton, with the Shanghai copper main contract expected to fluctuate between 84,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton, indicating a rising price center amid high volatility [4]