国信期货：铂谨防回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong momentum, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices reaching historical highs, particularly platinum, which has seen significant price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Platinum and palladium prices have surged due to a structural supply-demand imbalance expected to persist until 2025, with tight physical supply supporting price increases [1]. - The NYMEX platinum futures have initiated a major upward trend, influenced by macroeconomic easing expectations and capital inflows [1]. - The recent price spikes have led to increased market volatility, prompting the Guangxi Futures Exchange to adjust trading limits and margin requirements for platinum and palladium futures to mitigate excessive trading sentiment [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - Despite a 4.3% increase in U.S. GDP growth in Q3, consumer confidence has weakened, raising concerns about future economic conditions [1]. - Political influences on monetary policy have been highlighted, with potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and discussions around adjusting inflation targets, contributing to a prolonged accommodative environment [1]. - A weakening U.S. dollar has further supported the prices of precious metals, which are priced in dollars [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a potential supply-demand rebalancing in the platinum market by 2026, which could lead to a slight surplus if certain conditions are met [2]. - Current market sentiment appears overly optimistic, with prices having already priced in future shortages, creating a divergence from fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2]. - Recent volatility in palladium prices indicates a shift in market sentiment from unidirectional optimism to a more sensitive and high-volatility phase, suggesting that any marginal changes in macro expectations or regulatory attitudes could trigger significant price corrections [2][3].