2025债市复盘

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 has experienced significant fluctuations despite relatively low interest rate volatility, with 20 to 30 basis points being sufficient to create discomfort among bond professionals [1] - The year has been characterized as one where the bond market has become desensitized to fundamentals, with market movements not aligning with economic pressures [1] Summary by Categories Market Dynamics - Three key factors influencing the bond market in 2025 include: 1. A decline in the stability of the market's liability side, shifting from consensus expectations to divergence, leading to a reduction in the scale of bond assets for trading-oriented institutions [2] 2. Divergence in weak inflation narratives, with market sentiment shifting from extreme pessimism to divergence following the implementation of inward policy [2] 3. An economic transition entering a turning point, with industry differentiation and economic resilience coexisting, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for economic transformation [2] Institutional Behavior - Institutional behavior has been a crucial variable driving market transactions and catalyzing trends, particularly concerning insurance liability changes and banks' interest rate risk management [3] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has emerged as a core value proposition, aligning with banks' off-balance sheet asset return needs and capturing opportunities in a low-interest environment, potentially offering stable returns for investors [3]