政策面前瞻：多元工具下的宽松红利

Group 1 - The overall change in monetary policy this year includes a shift in the anchor of policy interest rates and diversification of monetary policy tools, with less aggressive easing than initially expected for next year [1] - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate comparisons is crucial, especially as market interest rates may enter a "no man's land" in 2024, raising questions about the pricing logic of long-duration bonds [1][2] - The anticipated return of funds from off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet for banks is expected to enhance the importance of asset pricing comparisons in the coming year [2] Group 2 - The central bank's actions, including the cessation of bond sales and the initiation of bond purchases, have led to significant mid-term liquidity injections through various tools, indicating a more diverse set of liquidity provision methods for next year [2][3] - Market focus is expected to shift towards the duration and structure of bond purchases by the central bank, as well as the operational details of various monetary policy tools [3] - A stable liquidity environment is anticipated for next year, with expectations of one or two interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, primarily aligned with major policy meetings [3] Group 3 - Broad credit is expected to expand moderately, driven by a backlog of projects ready for next year, with government remaining the primary driver of leverage, while household and corporate leverage intentions are relatively weak [4] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment, aligning with banks' needs to return off-balance sheet assets and providing opportunities for capturing returns in a low-interest-rate environment [4]