债市策略：防守反击下的十年国债ETF（511260）投资机遇

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the market will continue to exhibit characteristics of stock game under a low interest rate environment, with a focus on tracking the indicators and position changes of allocation and trading accounts to better understand market congestion and short-term direction [1] - The analysis highlights that institutional behavior, particularly from allocation institutions, has significantly impacted market volatility this year, with a noted lack of willingness to hold long-term bonds due to interest rate risks [1][2] - The article suggests that the demand for long-term bonds will likely remain weak next year, influenced by the insurance institutions' lower willingness to allocate to long-term government bonds and the overall supply-demand dynamics in the market [2] Group 2 - The expected core strategy for interest rate bonds next year is described as "defensive counterattack," with a forecast that the ten-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.5% and 2.0%, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [3] - Key trading opportunities are identified based on three expected discrepancies: narrative consensus, policy expectations, and liability tracking, which will influence the performance of related bond products [3] - The article recommends focusing on the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) as it offers both allocation and trading value, with expectations of good returns for investors by 2026 [4]