Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-26 01:19Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the macro asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities > equities > bonds [1] Equities - CITIC Securities forecasts a 5%-10% annual increase for the Wind All A-share index in 2026 [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a performance bottom rebound and a second round of valuation recovery, referred to as a "Davis Double-Click" market [1] - US stocks are likely to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the mid-term election year [1] Bonds - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8%, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Commodities - The oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to oscillate between $58 and $70 per barrel throughout the year [1] - Gold is anticipated to maintain strength supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is expected to have strong support driven by supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price forecasted to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Currency - The Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]