日元没有“速效药”！日本央行渐进紧缩难逆转结构性颓势，华尔街唱空声浪高涨

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is facing structural weakness with no quick fix, as major financial institutions predict further depreciation against the US dollar by 2026, potentially reaching levels of 160 yen or lower per dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan, negative real interest rates, and ongoing capital outflows are key drivers of the yen's depreciation [1]. - The yen has seen a slight increase of less than 1% against the dollar this year after four consecutive years of decline, but expectations for a reversal due to Bank of Japan's rate hikes and Federal Reserve's rate cuts have not materialized [1]. - The return of arbitrage trading, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, is making it more difficult for the yen to rebound [2]. Group 2: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley's chief forex strategist predicts a pessimistic outlook for the yen, forecasting a dollar-to-yen exchange rate of 164 by the end of 2026, citing cyclical pressures and the impact of higher interest rate expectations in other regions [2]. - BNP Paribas anticipates that the global macro environment will favor risk sentiment, which typically benefits arbitrage strategies, leading to a dollar-to-yen rate of 160 by 2026 [3]. - Bank of America highlights that Japan's direct foreign investment has remained stable, indicating a persistent outflow of capital that could continue to pressure the yen [3]. Group 3: Government and Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan's lack of aggressive rate hikes and the persistence of negative real interest rates are seen as critical factors maintaining the yen's weakness [4]. - There is growing concern about potential government intervention as the yen approaches levels that previously triggered official action, although analysts believe that intervention alone may not be sufficient to reverse the yen's downward trend [4][5]. - The focus remains on the upcoming fiscal strategy from the Japanese government, which could influence market sentiment and the yen's trajectory [5].