谨慎看待镍价反弹高度

Group 1 - Nickel prices in Shanghai experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the main contract 2601 dropping to 111,770 yuan/ton before rising above 120,000 yuan/ton due to positive news from Indonesia [1] - Indonesia's nickel mining association announced plans to reduce nickel ore quotas to approximately 250 million wet tons by 2026, significantly lower than the 379 million wet tons in 2025, aiming to control supply and stabilize prices [2] - The Indonesian government indicated that the quota adjustments require rigorous research and are still under internal discussion, leading to uncertainty about the implementation of these policies [2] Group 2 - Demand for nickel in the stainless steel sector remains weak despite some improvement in trading atmosphere, with insufficient end-user purchasing activity [3] - The automotive sector shows growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, but the demand for nickel from ternary battery manufacturers is still weak, with a decline in nickel sulfate production [3] - Supply of refined nickel remains abundant, with social inventory in China reaching 56,988 tons, a 35% year-on-year increase, and LME nickel inventory at 254,388 tons, up 56% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The cost of producing refined nickel is closely tied to the economic viability of nickel wet process intermediates (MHP), with production costs for MHP and high-grade nickel at 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The overall market for refined nickel is characterized by oversupply and significant inventory pressure, with short-term price movements dependent on potential supply reductions from Indonesia [4] - Caution is advised regarding the potential for further price rebounds, as the actual implementation of Indonesian policies remains uncertain [4]