有色行情全面扩散，金银铜史诗级暴涨，还能上车吗？

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced significant growth, with the non-ferrous index rising by 90% year-to-date as of December 25, leading the A-share industry rankings [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a surge in popularity, with net subscriptions exceeding 270 million yuan over three consecutive days, bringing its total scale to over 3.9 billion yuan, leading among similar index ETFs [1] - The overall non-ferrous market boom is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, policy directions, and market sentiment [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10 has triggered a significant rally in non-ferrous metals [4] - Cumulatively, the Fed has reduced rates by 175 basis points since September 2024, indicating a shift towards a prolonged easing cycle that supports metal prices [4] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side of non-ferrous metals is characterized by both rigidity and vulnerability, which supports prices for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5] - Disruptions in copper supply have been frequent this year, with major mines reducing production forecasts due to various operational challenges [5] - Domestic aluminum production capacity is capped, with an operating rate of 98.6% as of the end of October, indicating significant supply constraints [5] Group 4: Demand Drivers - Emerging industries such as AI and robotics are creating new demand for non-ferrous metals, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at growth and increased manufacturing investment [9] - The rapid development of sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles is driving substantial investment in copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and silicon, further boosting demand for these metals [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, infrastructure development will contribute to a 60% increase in global copper demand, equivalent to the current total global copper consumption [9] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous commodities, bolstered by monetary easing, supply constraints, and new demand drivers [10] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) for exposure to leading assets in this sector [10]