Ge Long Hui·2025-12-26 01:56Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly accumulated the quantity of renewable energy, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay in replacing thermal power. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate the qualitative leap in renewable energy, driven by policy guidance and structural optimization in various aspects [2]. Renewable Energy Development - The transition from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" is anticipated during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on achieving a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system [1][2]. Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by the maturation of business models and market-driven demand [3]. - Industrial and commercial storage is entering a high-growth phase due to increased support from various countries and declining system costs [3]. - China's complete energy storage supply chain positions it to benefit from rising domestic standards and profitability, enhancing its global market share [3]. Wind Power - Domestic wind power is projected to grow steadily due to its high yield and grid-friendly characteristics, with a new global growth cycle emerging [4]. - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to recover in terms of pricing and profit margins, while expanding into international markets [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the component sector may stabilize, with differentiated growth across various segments [4]. Photovoltaics - The domestic photovoltaic market may face pressure in 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, while emerging markets remain vibrant [5]. - Supply-side reforms are expected to lead to a recovery in prices and profitability within the photovoltaic industry, supported by new technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials [5]. Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [6][7]. - The industry is benefiting from domestic renewable energy consumption policies and international carbon tax regulations, driving rapid cost reductions [7].