预计人民币汇率有望进一步走强

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is supported by factors such as net cross-border capital inflows, balanced foreign exchange settlement, stable market expectations regarding exchange rate fluctuations, and active foreign exchange market trading [1] Economic Fundamentals - China's economy is showing steady improvement, with positive progress in economic restructuring and a strong growth momentum, making it likely to achieve a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1] - The anticipated start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle in September may lead to a weaker USD, potentially driving RMB appreciation and increasing corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, especially in the fourth quarter [1] Exchange Rate Mechanism - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index provides a comprehensive reflection of the value changes of the currency, incorporating major foreign currencies such as USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY, calculated using trade-weighted methods [1] - The introduction of the "counter-cyclical factor" has effectively mitigated market pro-cyclical behavior and stabilized market expectations since its implementation in 2017 [3] Policy Responses - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has a range of policy tools to enhance the RMB exchange rate's flexibility and maintain stability, including counter-cyclical factors, offshore liquidity management, and foreign exchange reserve interventions [2] - The recent alignment of the RMB central parity with market trading prices indicates a high degree of market confidence, with many quoting banks moving away from using the counter-cyclical factor [2] Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be more determined by market supply and demand, with a projected central level of around 7.0 against the USD by 2026, potentially peaking near 6.8 [4] - The core factors driving the RMB/USD exchange rate in the first half of 2026 are anticipated to be economic recovery, while a slight decline may occur in the second half of the year [4]