海通国际：首予中国旺旺“优大于市”评级 目标价5.76港元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Wangwang (00151) is expected to see revenue growth from FY2025 to FY2027, with projected revenues of 24.05 billion, 24.65 billion, and 25.27 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.3%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively, while net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 4.17 billion, 4.41 billion, and 4.61 billion yuan, with changes of -3.8%, +5.7%, and +4.6% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The food and beverage industry is characterized by multi-track layout and comprehensive marketing strategies that enhance brand strength. China Wangwang has developed into a well-known leader in the food and beverage sector over more than sixty years, with a business scope covering rice snacks, dairy beverages, and leisure foods. The company has a concentrated shareholding structure and stable internal governance, with most executives possessing rich industry experience [2] - The dairy beverage segment, which contributes over half of the revenue, is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 3.7% from FY2018 to FY2024. The segment benefits from increasing consumer demand for taste, and the outlook for the neutral milk beverage category, represented by the flagship product Wangzai Milk, is positive with relatively mild competition. Revenue growth for dairy beverages is projected at 0.5%, 2%, and 2% for FY2025 to FY2027 [2] - The rice snack business is expected to recover growth driven by new products and channels, with revenue growth projected at 3.5%, 2%, and 2% for FY2025 to FY2027. The leisure food segment, particularly candy, is also expected to maintain good growth, with revenue growth forecasted at 5%, 4%, and 4% for FY2025 to FY2027 [2] - The company is actively seeking breakthroughs through organizational changes, expanding emerging channels, and focusing on overseas markets. Despite pressure on traditional channels, new retail formats such as bulk snacks, platforms, content e-commerce, and instant retail are developing well. Additionally, the Asian market is benefiting from rapid growth in candy and pastries, with the share of revenue from non-traditional channels increasing from less than 10% in H1 2021 to approximately 35% in H1 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has managed to control raw material costs and continuously optimize operational efficiency. The gross margin is expected to improve in FY2023-2024 due to declining costs. The company plans to adopt domestic substitutes to address rising prices of imported milk powder, while other major raw material costs remain manageable. Although the expense ratio may be temporarily pressured due to organizational restructuring in FY2024H2, the operating profit margin for each category is expected to recover after a short-term decline, with overall EBIT margin projected at 23.8%, 23.9%, and 24.1% for FY2025 to FY2027 [3]