金融界集团董事长张斌：把握复苏周期机遇，在时代的β中奔跑出自己的α

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 financial conference emphasizes the need for China’s economy, capital markets, and industries to "run hard" in response to significant internal and external changes, aiming to achieve their own alpha in the new era [1]. Economic Outlook - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow around 5%, surpassing 140 trillion yuan, maintaining a leading position among major economies [3]. - The capital market is expected to see a "quantitative and qualitative improvement," with A-share total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points after ten years, indicating a significant improvement in market confidence [3]. - The rise of new productive forces, particularly in AI and biomedicine, is driving structural transformation, while reforms are being implemented to reshape supply and manage local debt [3]. Capital Market Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, with a focus on improving the coordination of investment and financing functions [4]. - The capital market is set to play a more crucial role in national economic growth, industrial upgrades, and wealth management for residents, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to break through existing trends [4]. Industry Dynamics - As the economy transitions and the real estate sector stabilizes, new productive forces like AI and high-end manufacturing are becoming key growth drivers, necessitating industries to "run" to lead trends [5]. - The financial sector is leveraging AI technology to reshape financial information services, significantly increasing the daily output of financial information and reaching over 60 billion cumulative views on platforms like Toutiao [5]. Future Projections - The year 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for the "15th Five-Year Plan," marking a transition away from low inflation and establishing a new equilibrium [3]. - The call for all sectors to embrace the recovery cycle and seize opportunities is highlighted, with a reference to the "Kondratiev wave" theory suggesting that 2025 may mark the end of a downturn phase [5].