东京通胀降温，加息难停？日元陷政策博弈困局

Group 1: Inflation Data - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in December, which is a significant slowdown from the previous month's 2.8% and below the market expectation of 2.5% [6][7] - This marks the first inflation slowdown since August, primarily reflecting a deceleration in food price increases and a decline in energy costs [7] - Excluding fresh food, food prices in Tokyo increased by 6.2% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous month [8] Group 2: Energy Prices - Tokyo's energy prices fell by 3.4% year-on-year in December, contrasting with a 2.6% increase in the previous month [10] - Electricity prices decreased by 2.5%, city gas prices dropped by 4.7%, and gasoline prices fell by 6.4% compared to the same month last year [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's industrial output fell by 2.6% in November, reversing a 1.5% increase in October, which was worse than the expected decline of 1.8% [11] - Despite the decline, companies expect output to rebound, forecasting a 1.3% increase in December and a significant 8.0% rise in January [11] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, indicating a potential for further tightening of monetary policy [13] - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen remains weak, trading near its lowest levels against the dollar, which may increase import costs and exacerbate inflationary pressures [14] - The Japanese government is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as indicated by recent statements from officials [15] Group 5: Fiscal Policy - The Japanese cabinet approved a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen (approximately $785 billion) for the next fiscal year, aiming to balance active fiscal policies with concerns over rising debt [16] - The government has assured investors that it will not engage in irresponsible debt issuance or tax cuts amid rising national debt yields and a weak yen [16]