人民币汇率大幅升值，离岸人民币盘中升破7.0大关

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has broken the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, marking a 15-month peak, while the onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, a new high since September 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is driven by four main forces: a weakening US dollar index, a strong Chinese stock market increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets, rising demand for currency settlement from export companies, and the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain stability in the RMB against a basket of currencies [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar index, particularly around the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 11, has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency settlement demand from enterprises as the year-end approaches, have also contributed to the RMB's strength [4]. Group 2: Implications for Capital Markets and Trade - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets to foreign investors, potentially increasing foreign exchange gains [4]. - For export companies, the recent RMB appreciation may reduce exchange profits, while import companies will benefit from lower costs [4]. - Experts recommend that foreign trade companies avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and focus on their core business, utilizing foreign exchange derivatives to manage risks [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation trend through 2026, with a potential key level at 6.8 against the US dollar [5][6]. - The central bank's policy is expected to balance stability and flexibility, enhancing the resilience of the RMB exchange rate [5].