宽货币政策升温降息预期，30年国债ETF(511090)久期价值凸显，盘中涨0.27%

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including monetary policy signals and external uncertainties, while the 30-year government bond ETF shows potential for investment due to its liquidity and low-risk profile [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) increased by 0.27%, with an intraday turnover of 5.21% and a transaction volume of 1.391 billion yuan [1]. - The average daily transaction volume for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past year reached 8.377 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF is 26.693 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - On December 25, the Chinese interbank bond market continued to experience narrow fluctuations, with all main government bond futures contracts closing lower [1]. - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.24% to 112.510 yuan, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts also saw slight declines [1]. - Factors such as signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting, unchanged LPR, and rising uncertainties in global trade are contributing to the overall bond market's performance [1]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The Central Economic Work Conference has indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting a high probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the coming year [2]. - The government is expected to maintain a coordinated approach of "loose monetary" and "loose fiscal" policies, which is necessary to support government debt expansion in a low-interest environment [2]. - Bond ETFs are highlighted for their low-risk and liquidity advantages, making them essential for conservative investors' asset allocation [2].