加息周期叠加财政扩张 日本削减2026年国债发行 着力“减长增短”

Core Viewpoint - Japan plans to reduce government bond sales in the fiscal year 2026, focusing on cutting long-term debt while maintaining short-term bond issuance [2][3] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The total amount of government bonds to be issued in fiscal year 2026 is set at 168.5 trillion yen (approximately 1.1 trillion USD), a reduction of 3.8 trillion yen from the previous fiscal year's initial plan [2] - The combined sales of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds will decrease by 7.2 trillion yen to 17.4 trillion yen, marking the lowest issuance level since 2009 for ultra-long-term bonds [2] - The issuance of 10-year bonds will remain unchanged, while sales of 2-year and 5-year bonds will increase [2] Group 2: Economic Context and Fiscal Policy - Japan's government approved a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 amounting to 18.3 trillion yen, the largest since the pandemic, aimed at addressing rising prices and promoting economic growth [3] - The general account budget for fiscal year 2026 is approximately 122.3092 trillion yen, exceeding the previous year's budget of about 115 trillion yen, setting a new historical record [3] - Concerns about fiscal sustainability are rising as Japan continues to implement expansionary fiscal policies amid high debt levels and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Bond Yields - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds is reported at 2.034%, with yields on 20-year, 30-year, and 2-year bonds showing slight fluctuations, indicating market sensitivity to fiscal policies and interest rate expectations [2][4] - The demand for 2-year bonds has weakened, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.26, lower than previous auctions, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and potential aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Japan's government debt will reach 229.6% of GDP by 2025, the highest among developed countries [3]