连涨6日 碳酸锂主力合约突破13万关口！多股大涨

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a significant breakthrough, with the main contract rising over 8% to surpass 130,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2023, and a year-to-date increase of 67.29% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The lithium carbonate main contract has seen a continuous increase for six trading days, becoming one of the best-performing commodities [2] - The lithium mining sector in the A-share market responded positively, with the lithium mining index rising by 3.24%, and leading stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie Co., and Tianqi Lithium Industries seeing gains of over 3% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price surge is attributed to expectations of supply contraction in the upstream industry, particularly following announcements from major companies Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy regarding production cuts [2] - Hunan Youneng plans to reduce phosphate material output by 15,000 to 35,000 tons starting January 1, 2026, while Wanrun New Energy will cut production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons from December 28, 2025 [2] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - In response to the rapid price increase, regulatory bodies have implemented measures to prevent excessive speculation, including adjustments to trading limits on lithium carbonate futures contracts [3][4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced changes to minimum order quantities and daily opening limits for specific contracts to manage market volatility [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market is characterized by a "strong reality and strong expectation resonance," but caution against short-term volatility risks [4] - The overall sentiment indicates a tight balance between supply and demand, with expectations of price fluctuations in the near term [4] - South China Futures predicts that 2026 will be a significant year for global energy storage demand, potentially driving lithium carbonate prices higher, while also noting constraints from supply elasticity and alternative pricing effects [5]